Employ America

Our immediate reaction to Powell's Jackson Hole speech.

The 2020 Fed Framework changes around full employment were appropriate and an important part of achieving the full employment recovery seen after the pandemic. Blaming it for historically unique demand- and supply-side inflationary shocks misses the mark.

Key Takeaways:  * This post is a follow up to our piece last week outlining why Reported Quarterly Growth (RQG) is a better approach to accounting for data changes more transparently. * This methodology allows us to account for revisions more robustly and to run rigorous back-tests and stress-tests to see how

Revisions to macroeconomic data happen. Frequently. To almost all major releases, not just nonfarm payroll employment. Sometimes those revisions are large, and they are often largest at critical inflection points in the business cycle. Some of the largest revisions to employment and GDP transpired around the 2007-09 Great Recession, where

Job growth has slowed sharply, and even if one attributes a large part of that to slowing labor supply from lower immigration, prime-age employment rates are now down 0.5pp from a year ago

With inflation risk still unresolved and the labor market still looking similar to how it did in the previous meeting, the Committee is still mostly in wait-and-see mode.