Productivity Analysis

The productivity data is messy and often should not be taken at face value. Our "Cautious Case For Productivity Optimism" in the summer of last year flagged three forces that should support better productivity growth in 2023 and 2024 have been cautious optimists about productivity improvement for some

Summary Amidst all of the understandable concern with inflation and recession risks, the evidence continues to foretell a welcome inflection point on the horizon—a rare procyclical upturn in productivity growth. We continue to see signs that a maturing labor market—in which employment rates fully recover from recessionary damage

Summary Amidst all of the understandable concern with inflation and recession risks, the evidence continues to foretell a welcome inflection point on the horizon—a rare procyclical upturn in productivity growth. We continue to see signs that a maturing labor market—in which employment rates fully recover from recessionary damage

From the outset, I should say that I am a bigger skeptic of productivity data than most. Once you know how the sausage is made, you will be more skeptical of how it is typically served to customers. Nevertheless, I'm about to lay out three reasons, based on

Is productivity worryingly low right now? Some commentators have argued it is, going on to argue that the "disappointing" productivity data should be a primary factor in the Fed's upcoming policy decisions. By their logic, disappointing realized productivity performance in 2022 increases the likelihood of further