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The aggregate Industrial Production index ticked up 0.1% month over month, for a reading that is down 0.2% year over year.

The Supply Chain Monitor is Employ America’s Macro Suite newsletter covering developments in data on the supply side of the economy.

The February ISM Manufacturing PMIs suggest a slowdown, but the commentary indicates that the slowdown is both expected, and not an indication of further erosion in the demand picture.

Some commentators have noted that supply-side disinflation may be reaching an end point, but it is also clear that the supply-side pricing pressures of the pandemic era are over.

Overall industrial production stayed flat year over year in the January data, and shrank by 0.1% month over month.

The soft data for January came in strong following a blockbuster Q4 GDP report and a lackluster January jobs report. Both ISM Services and Manufacturing saw upturns relative to their December reports.

GDP growth this quarter was supported by consumption and government spending, while investment played a more muted role.

Overall production inched up, with headline industrial production rising 0.1% month-over-month for a 1% year-over-year increase.

One way we can think about how present inflation is different from the 1970s experience is by looking at the difference in price changes for capital goods.