The pandemic revealed how vulnerable our economy is to supply chain disruptions, with shortages driving price increases across multiple sectors. Our Supply Chain Monitor tracks bottlenecks in key industries and transportation networks that can affect prices and production capacity throughout the economy. We analyze shipping costs, delivery times, inventory levels, and component availability across critical sectors like semiconductors, housing materials, and energy.
Supply Chain Monitor
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As part of our project to monitor the supply side, we closely track each month’s new data. The PPI release is key for understanding how inflationary pressures propagate through the costs that firms face for intermediate inputs.
It is clear from this month’s manufacturing commentary that an industrial slowdown may be afoot.
With apologies for delay over the Thanksgiving holiday, we present the data recap for Industrial Production.
This month’s release saw continued disinflation in many sections of the Producer Price Index, but a look at the chart for the Final Demand index tells the whole story: producer prices have been parked since June of last year, up just 1.3% over that time period.
Trade continues to slow with the broader economy.
In every month of the past twelve months, public spending on construction increased. This has never happened before in this dataset, and it is double the next-longest period of continuous increase.
What a great GDP print. 8.5% nominal growth, and 4.9% inflation-adjusted on the first revision.
Rather than careening from disaster to disaster, we might just be having an economy for the time being. The pandemic showed clear deficiencies in capacity and capabilities across a range of sectors, most of which are taking steps to address those deficiencies now.