CPI

In 2026, the Fed moved from an easing bias to a hold to a hike, catching up to the data with a lag at every stage. We look back at how (1) a bottoms-up read of inflation, (2) a careful reading of the labor market, and (3) close tracking of the full FOMC put us ahead of the hawkish turn.

We see a sizable "inverted" CPI-PCE wedge for July 2026.