If we are trying to describe the nature of the real constraints that the economy has been facing over the past 6-12 months, we need a richer economic vocabulary than one that reduces every inflationary constraint to a domestic labor constraint.
A CPI pre-read, wherein we argue the Fed should be calibrating its tightening efforts to what current conditions are indicating.
Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on...
Calendar Year Price Revisions Skew Risks To The Upside in January, But The Balance of Risks May Shift Soon After
January is always a high-variance month for inflation readings and especially so for this January. We have been flagging the dynamics that were likely to grease the runway...
It is key for commentators and policymakers to bear in mind that "transitory vs. persistent" is not the same debate as "narrow vs. broad-based."