Inflation

Tariffs are back. With President Trump implementing and still proposing sweeping new import tariffs, the U.S. economy is staring down the barrel of policy-driven price increases and a new round of supply-driven cost-push inflation. If enacted for a long enough period of time, these policies could push up the

Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like to become a MacroSuite subscriber to get all

The uncertainty over tariffs put inflation targeting’s weakness on display.

Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. Most of the PCE inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance, import price index (IPI) data can