Macro and Markets

Composite Activity held at +1.1σ since June 18. 1Q2026 GDP was revised up to +2.1%, but consumption was revised down to +0.5% and private final demand to +1.7%. Mfg restocking still strong, AI capex anchors the cycle; regional Fed hiring broadened. 2-3 hikes from October remains base case.

Composite Activity rose +0.1σ to +1.1σ since June 12 — Mfg restocking still strong, AI capex anchors the cycle. Iran MOU cuts left-tail risk; inflation risks still linger. 2 hikes from October remains base case, 3 shouldn't be ruled out.