Recap

The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption