Does Unemployment Actually Have To Rise For Wage Growth To Slow?
Wage growth is slowing. Job openings are increasing, unemployment is holding, and wage growth is slowing. This was supposed to be impossible–so what does it mean that it’s happening?
Alex Williams
51 postsWhat Is "Core PCE Services Ex-Housing" Anyway?
The Fed is worried that inflation will continue until wage growth comes down or unemployment ticks up based on the continued strength in “Core PCE Services ex-Housing”. But the Fed is wrong to be so confident.
December Inflation Preview: Risks Skew To The Downside, But Upside Scenarios Remain Plausible
A soft landing consensus for CPI? The forecasting consensus is sticking close to its November predictions, with a 0.3% increase expected for core CPI (falling from 6%...
The Fed Is Trying To Engineer A Recession
Though they may proclaim otherwise, the Fed is aiming for a recessionary labor market. They might not succeed, they might change their minds, but buried in the Fed’s latest projections is a definite–albeit obscured–statement of intent.
