The Fed's preferred inflation gauges are deflators of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the consumer spending component of GDP. These price indices are based on a few input data sources, including the Consumer Price Indices (CPI),Producer Price Indices (PPI), and Import Price Index (IPI), but are methodologically distinct from them. We usually have a decent read of PCE deflators after CPI (which tends to be the first inflation gauge released), but there are a lot of controls and calculations to account for. When updating views month to month about inflation, the dirty work here matters.
Core Cast

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Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption
Our inflation previews are typically released to the public with a delay relative to what we provide to our exclusive High Frequency Descriptive Analysis (HFDA) distribution subscribers. The release of the revised seasonal factors led to the idiosyncratic delay in making this particular preview public, but at least for the