The Federal Open Market Committee meetings represent critical junctures where monetary policy decisions directly impact employment outcomes and economic stability. Our team closely analyzes meeting statements, press conferences, dot plots, and economic projections to assess the Fed's approach to its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
FOMC Meetings
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34 Posts
Summary: Today's FOMC Statement and press conference shows high continuity with the thinking reflected in the December FOMC meeting. The Fed does not appear to be impressed by the deceleration in wage growth in 2022H2 enough to explicitly rethink the inflation, unemployment, or interest rate outlook right now.
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will continue moderating its pace of rate hikes, stepping down to 25 basis point hikes. 2. With favorable disinflationary data coming in from both wages and prices since the last meeting, the key question is whether or not the Fed continues to think it
Dec 13, 2022
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will step down from their breakneck pace of 75 basis point hikes to a still very brisk 50 basis point pace of hikes. 2. FOMC members are likely to signal that the peak Fed Funds Rate will be above 5%, likely in the target
Two things are all but guaranteed for the rest of the week: 1. The Fed is going to hike 75 basis points (2.25%-2.50%) and signal that it remains vigilant about inflation. Their characterization of growth dynamics are likely to remain on the rosier side, and inflation expectations
At tomorrow's FOMC meeting, the Fed will almost certainly hike 25 basis points. With that hike comes the full conclusion of the Fed's ambitious yet sometimes opaque "maximum employment" forward guidance. A hike in March is a clear declaration that the Fed believes the
Jan 11, 2022
To understand how the Fed is interpreting its “maximum employment” mandate in the current context, it’s worth going through Chair Powell’s remarks and Q&A for the December FOMC meeting.
