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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

270 Posts
Preston Mui

The Fed is confident that the labor market is steady enough that they can turn their eye towards inflation. Is the negative payrolls print today enough to shake that confidence? We don’t think so

Kevin Warsh is off to a rocky start just two meetings into his tenure as Fed chair. He has refused to provide a framework for how monetary policy should operate, and he has lost both the hawks and doves on the rest of the Committee. The signal for where rates are going will come from his colleagues.

Williams remains dovish, but it's important to understand why: he has a much rosier view of the inflation trajectory than his more hawkish colleagues.

After the FOMC meeting yesterday, our new Fed baseline is for hikes to begin in September, with 3 overall hikes.

We expect the Committee to try to put some tightening bias into the statement, but exactly how will need to be negotiated with Warsh's opposition to forward guidance.

We expect the Committee to try to put some tightening bias into the statement, but exactly how will need to be negotiated with Warsh's opposition to forward guidance.

The next few inflation prints will matter a lot, and the bar to hike is getting lower.

The labor market report has dovish implications, but we'd like to avoid overtorquing on the drop in employment.

Things are not as dire as the drop in the prime-age employment rate would signal alone, but the case for a labor market acceleration is weaker.

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