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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

280 Posts
Preston Mui

Key Committee members pushed back against the idea of hiking again in October, opting for a more gradual approach.

In 2026, the Fed moved from an easing bias to a hold to a hike, catching up to the data with a lag at every stage. We look back at how (1) a bottoms-up read of inflation, (2) a careful reading of the labor market, and (3) close tracking of the full FOMC put us ahead of the hawkish turn.

Fedspeak was hawkish following the decision to hike by 25bps at the September FOMC meeting.

We think the Fed will hike next week (80%). Our base case for further hikes is for another hike this year, and another in 2027H1 though December should not be ruled out.

With the labor market in a stable place, the FOMC is going into the September meeting with one question: is rate policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down?

We will be watching closely for any Fedspeak that comes out of Jackson Hole this week.

We will be watching closely for any Fedspeak that comes out of Jackson Hole this week.

We heard from a few speakers this week, but nothing too substantial.

About two-thirds of the decline can be explained by changes in the population weights, and most of the remaining decline is due to lower participation rates amongst older workers, especially those aged 65 and older.

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