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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

257 Posts
Preston Mui

Our new Fed base case is for two hikes overall by 2027H1, with the first hike by October 2026.

The hawks at the Fed are going to have a stronger hand going into the June meeting to set up for a pivot to hikes later this year.

Speakers pushed back against Warsh's "productivity growth will lead to disinflation" narrative.

We heard from Waller who, in an act of forward guidance rebellion against Warsh, explicitly announced his intention to kill the easing bias at the June meeting.

Reading between the lines, the hiking bias is already there in the Fedspeak.

We see the FOMC moving towards a tightening bias and raising rates at some point in the next twelve months—with or without Warsh.

Opposition to an easing bias continues to spread throughout the regional bank presidents.

The question is no longer going to be “when will the Fed cut?” but rather “will the Fed hike?”

After last week's FOMC meeting, the hawks explain their dissents. Warsh is going to have a tough time reaching anything approaching consensus for rate cuts this year.

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