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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

277 Posts
Preston Mui

We think the Fed will hike next week (80%). Our base case for further hikes is for another hike this year, and another in 2027H1 though December should not be ruled out.

With the labor market in a stable place, the FOMC is going into the September meeting with one question: is rate policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down?

We will be watching closely for any Fedspeak that comes out of Jackson Hole this week.

We will be watching closely for any Fedspeak that comes out of Jackson Hole this week.

We heard from a few speakers this week, but nothing too substantial.

About two-thirds of the decline can be explained by changes in the population weights, and most of the remaining decline is due to lower participation rates amongst older workers, especially those aged 65 and older.

Cook's speech from last week confirms our suspicion that the Fed reaction function is moving hawkish across the board. She's clearly ready to hike soon and the bar is not high

The Fed is confident that the labor market is steady enough that they can turn their eye towards inflation. Is the negative payrolls print today enough to shake that confidence? We don’t think so

Kevin Warsh is off to a rocky start just two meetings into his tenure as Fed chair. He has refused to provide a framework for how monetary policy should operate, and he has lost both the hawks and doves on the rest of the Committee. The signal for where rates are going will come from his colleagues.

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