The Fed's preferred inflation gauges are deflators of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the consumer spending component of GDP. These price indices are based on a few input data sources, including the Consumer Price Indices (CPI),Producer Price Indices (PPI), and Import Price Index (IPI), but are methodologically distinct from them. We usually have a decent read of PCE deflators after CPI (which tends to be the first inflation gauge released), but there are a lot of controls and calculations to account for. When updating views month to month about inflation, the dirty work here matters.
Core Cast
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Summary Core PCE came in at +25bps for the month-over-month July reading, a highly uncharacteristic 9 basis point miss. Our miss primarily stemmed from healthcare, airfares, and tax preparation services. We will be implementing improved nowcasting techniques next month and look forward to being back on track. A
We see a sizable "inverted" CPI-PCE wedge for July 2026.
Month-over-month Core PCE came in at 13bps in June, three basis points below our nowcast of 16bps. Headline came in at -11bps vs our -10bp nowcast. Our errors primarily stemmed from Supercore (core services ex-housing), while our nowcasts for core goods and housing came in right in
Our month-over-month May Core PCE nowcast of 0.40% came in 8 basis points above the realized 0.32% reading. Our error stemmed from Supercore (core services ex-housing) – the realized readings for nowcasts for core goods and housing came right in line with our final nowcasts for