The Fed's preferred inflation gauges are deflators of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the consumer spending component of GDP. These price indices are based on a few input data sources, including the Consumer Price Indices (CPI),Producer Price Indices (PPI), and Import Price Index (IPI), but are methodologically distinct from them. We usually have a decent read of PCE deflators after CPI (which tends to be the first inflation gauge released), but there are a lot of controls and calculations to account for. When updating views month to month about inflation, the dirty work here matters.
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May 13, 2026
May 05, 2026
Summary & Discussion After Kevin Warsh's professed interest in Trimmed Mean PCE at his confirmation hearing, we published updated nowcasts for all PCE inflation gauges, including Trimmed Mean and Median inflation, as well as updated estimates for Headline, Core, and Supercore PCE. Compared to those nowcasts, we didn&
Apr 14, 2026
Summary We thought we were penciling in sufficiently strong readings for the PPI inputs in March but apparently not enough. We've marked up our y/y and m/m readings for Core PCE in March by 4bps (26bps->30bps m/m, 3.13%->3.17%
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Apr 10, 2026
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Apr 08, 2026