Our Labor Market Analysis goes beyond conventional unemployment statistics to assess the true health of the job market. We track prime-age (25-54) employment rates, various wage growth measures, and job dynamism indicators like quits and hires to measure labor market tightness.
Labor Market Analysis
Read the Latest
Read the Latest
39 Posts
About two-thirds of the decline can be explained by changes in the population weights, and most of the remaining decline is due to lower participation rates amongst older workers, especially those aged 65 and older.
Even without an estimate of population growth, one can infer that the breakeven growth rate of nonfarm payrolls has fallen.
Apr 01, 2026
Intro With jobs day coming up on Friday, it is important to understand how the Fed is tracking the labor market. In particular, it is crucial to not overindex to the monthly nonfarm payroll prints—something we have warned against since 2023. Revisions whiplash, a shifting "breakeven rate"
Jan 12, 2026
Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what such a rise in the unemployment rate typically implied. Most prime working age cohorts actually saw rising employment
|
Nov 14, 2025
Both initial and continuing claims fell slightly with this week's data.
|
Nov 07, 2025