Jobs Day

Things are not as dire as the drop in the prime-age employment rate would signal alone, but the case for a labor market acceleration is weaker.

The hawks at the Fed are going to have a stronger hand going into the June meeting to set up for a pivot to hikes later this year.

The question is no longer going to be “when will the Fed cut?” but rather “will the Fed hike?”

This is a solid jobs report, but the confusion over nonfarm payroll prints continues.

All in all, still a soft report. Methodological quirks explain some of the weakness but they only go so far. The Fed won't see this as a reason to cut imminently, but they'll be on guard.

We're still digesting the -92,000 payroll print. But here are our quick takes.

The details of the household survey were unambiguously good, with increasing employment and participation, lower part-time underemployment, and an improving composition of employment and unemployment.