Jobs Day

The Fed is confident that the labor market is steady enough that they can turn their eye towards inflation. Is the negative payrolls print today enough to shake that confidence? We don’t think so

Things are not as dire as the drop in the prime-age employment rate would signal alone, but the case for a labor market acceleration is weaker.

The hawks at the Fed are going to have a stronger hand going into the June meeting to set up for a pivot to hikes later this year.

The question is no longer going to be “when will the Fed cut?” but rather “will the Fed hike?”

This is a solid jobs report, but the confusion over nonfarm payroll prints continues.

All in all, still a soft report. Methodological quirks explain some of the weakness but they only go so far. The Fed won't see this as a reason to cut imminently, but they'll be on guard.

We're still digesting the -92,000 payroll print. But here are our quick takes.