Fedspeak Monitor

The next few inflation prints will matter a lot, and the bar to hike is getting lower.

The labor market report has dovish implications, but we'd like to avoid overtorquing on the drop in employment.

A light week of Fedspeak this week. Kashkari and Goolsbee sound hawkish as expected, with Kashkari revealing his dot at one hike for the year. Williams continues to be optimistic about inflation, and shows no sign of considering hikes at this point.

Speakers pushed back against Warsh's "productivity growth will lead to disinflation" narrative.

We heard from Waller who, in an act of forward guidance rebellion against Warsh, explicitly announced his intention to kill the easing bias at the June meeting.

Reading between the lines, the hiking bias is already there in the Fedspeak.

Opposition to an easing bias continues to spread throughout the regional bank presidents.

After last week's FOMC meeting, the hawks explain their dissents. Warsh is going to have a tough time reaching anything approaching consensus for rate cuts this year.

You can see signs of hawkishness creeping into the Fedspeak. Goolsbee, Hammack and Musalem all expressed some openness to the idea of rate hikes this year.