The pandemic revealed how vulnerable our economy is to supply chain disruptions, with shortages driving price increases across multiple sectors. Our Supply Chain Monitor tracks bottlenecks in key industries and transportation networks that can affect prices and production capacity throughout the economy. We analyze shipping costs, delivery times, inventory levels, and component availability across critical sectors like semiconductors, housing materials, and energy.
Supply Chain Monitor
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Supply-driven upside inflation risks were mounting even before the Hormuz shock. We traced 29 PCE goods categories through the domestic supply chain to produce a Supply-Chain Weighted PPI composite to better forecast goods inflation. The model suggests more upside risk to goods inflation ahead.
Goods exports inched up by 1.2% year-over-year in the January data
The growth rate for Total Nonfarm Employment ticked down in the February data, to 1.27% year-over-year from 1.38% in the January data.
December data show a significant acceleration in domestic industrial production, posting nearly 2% year-over-year growth following a year of mostly slow contraction.
Despite a report whose internals support a lower-than-expected PCE inflation reading, the December Producer Price Index data show acceleration in the All Commodities index.
Nominal goods exports saw negative year-over-year growth in the December data, following a year of relatively flat export growth.
Nominal goods imports rose in the December 2024 data, posting a nearly 13% year-over-year increase.
Employment growth continues to be driven by gains in the service sector.