Economic data releases, policy announcements, and market developments often generate more confusion than clarity without proper context and interpretation. Our Macro Suite Commentary provides timely analysis that connects individual economic signals to the broader picture, explaining what developments mean for employment, inflation, and overall economic health. We cut through technical jargon to identify the most significant implications for policymakers and the public. By contextualizing complex economic information within our full employment framework, these commentaries help ensure that policy discussions remain focused on creating broad-based prosperity rather than becoming fixated on individual data points or short-term market reactions.
Macro Suite Commentary
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After the FOMC meeting yesterday, our new Fed baseline is for hikes to begin in September, with 3 overall hikes.
The BEA will make three changes to how it measures price change for portfolio management, computer software and accessories, and legal services in PCE. On net, these changes would likely lower current PCE inflation readings.
With the government shutdown, the intermeeting period did not have enough data to deter the Fed from cutting again in October.
With inflation risk still unresolved and the labor market still looking similar to how it did in the previous meeting, the Committee is still mostly in wait-and-see mode. But Waller and Bowman will be ready to move.