Alex Williams
Today’s hot PCE print keeps a June hike plausibly in play though it still seems like a hold is the better baseline view. This week saw another big round of Fedspeak — though we are still notably waiting on updates from Esther George.
What’s Happening: Despite signs of a “bloodbath” in the spot market for trucking, investment in the production of new trucks is set up to hold steady even as shipping rates fall. This could be good news for the inflation, investment, and climate outlooks. Why It Matters: In recessions, trucking
What’s Happening: Despite signs of a “bloodbath” in the spot market for trucking, investment in the production of new trucks is set up to hold steady even as shipping rates fall. This could be good news for the inflation, investment and climate outlooks.
Cuts in 2023 is not in anyone’s non-market risk-neutral expectation for FOMC dots.We had a flurry of Fedspeak this week, with more than half the Committee making speeches or taking interviews.
Cuts in 2023 is not in anyone’s non-market risk-neutral expectation for FOMC dots. We had a flurry of Fedspeak this week, with more than half the Committee making speeches or taking interviews.
New industrial production data are suggesting that domestic auto production may be recovering. This would be a much-needed disinflationary force against a backdrop where disinflation in new and used autos is threatening to stall out. Yesterday, we got new industrial production data from the Fed, and there is encouraging news
Three Big Themes We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption. After a correction earlier in the year, industrial production
We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption.
This past week saw a flurry of fedspeak with a bit of a common theme: waiting for the data. The next few weeks leading up to the June meeting will see new readings from a wide range of indicators, PCE and Jobs Day most important among them.
