Federal Reserve

Kevin Warsh is off to a rocky start just two meetings into his tenure as Fed chair. He has refused to provide a framework for how monetary policy should operate, and he has lost both the hawks and doves on the rest of the Committee. The signal for where rates are going will come from his colleagues.

Intro With jobs day coming up on Friday, it is important to understand how the Fed is tracking the labor market. In particular, it is crucial to not overindex to the monthly nonfarm payroll prints—something we have warned against since 2023. Revisions whiplash, a shifting "breakeven rate"

Without further signs of deterioration in the labor market, the Committee is unlikely to cut in December. By our count, a majority of the FOMC is leaning against a December cut.

A light week of Fedspeak. We heard from Powell this week, who dodged a question about a July cut.

This is the final post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review and strategy for dealing with supply shocks. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation risks, Part 2 discusses the implications of recent productivity dynamics, Part 3 discusses the

An eventful week of Fedspeak changes many of our views of where Committee members are.

In the days after the FOMC press conference, we have a couple of speakers talking about the possibility that they may need to move to protect the labor market.