SummaryAlthough neither the magnitude nor composition of last week's inflation print surprised us, especially given the knock-on effects from the 'Ukraine shock', they did surprise the CPI forecasting consensus. In response, Chair Powell and the rest of the committee will likely deliver...
At tomorrow's FOMC meeting, the Fed will almost certainly hike 25 basis points. With that hike comes the full conclusion of the Fed's ambitious yet sometimes opaque "maximum...
Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on...
Conventional wisdom has held that rate hikes slow inflation long enough that straightforward accounts of how exactly one turns into the other are hard to find. Today, everyone needs to be on the same page about how exactly it is that Fed policy in particular can slow inflation.
We provide an update on what our in-house monetary policy framework suggests about the appropriate trajectory for monetary policy using more reliable “real-time” measures of gross labor income
