Employment

In 2026, the Fed moved from an easing bias to a hold to a hike, catching up to the data with a lag at every stage. We look back at how (1) a bottoms-up read of inflation, (2) a careful reading of the labor market, and (3) close tracking of the full FOMC put us ahead of the hawkish turn.

Both initial and continuing claims fell slightly with this week's data.