Systematic Monitors

This monitor tracks US growth data in real-time, aligned to the timing of each release. It is a more timely & meaningful gauge of activity growth than GDP or other summary indicators. Please see here for more details. Summary: The data trends of the past two weeks continues to push

Summary & Discussion After Kevin Warsh's professed interest in Trimmed Mean PCE at his confirmation hearing, we published updated nowcasts for all PCE inflation gauges, including Trimmed Mean and Median inflation, as well as updated estimates for Headline, Core, and Supercore PCE. Compared to those nowcasts, we didn&

Summary We thought we were penciling in sufficiently strong readings for the PPI inputs in March but apparently not enough. We've marked up our y/y and m/m readings for Core PCE in March by 4bps (26bps->30bps m/m, 3.13%->3.17%