Payrolls

Intro With jobs day coming up on Friday, it is important to understand how the Fed is tracking the labor market. In particular, it is crucial to not overindex to the monthly nonfarm payroll prints—something we have warned against since 2023. Revisions whiplash, a shifting "breakeven rate"

Revisions to macroeconomic data happen. Frequently. To almost all major releases, not just nonfarm payroll employment. Sometimes those revisions are large, and they are often largest at critical inflection points in the business cycle. Some of the largest revisions to employment and GDP transpired around the 2007-09 Great Recession, where