Labor Market Recap November 2022: Strong but Slowing
Overall the labor market data from November show a mixed picture, with the establishment survey showing resilience even as the household survey signaling a slowdown.
Preston Mui
7 postsWho is Driving the Labor Shortage? Part-time Over-70 Workers
A Labor Supply Shock?Much ado has been made about the shortfall in the headline employment-to-population ratio and the headline labor force participation rate of late. Many have...
The Argument for a Recession is Built on Weak Links: Inflation, Vacancies and Unemployment
This is the second piece of our vacancies series. In this piece, we refute specific vacancy-backed arguments that the Federal Reserve will need to engineer a recession in order to bring inflation under control.
A Vacant Metric: Why Job Openings Are So Unreliable
The Federal Reserve has given job vacancy data center stage in assessing the strength of the labor market. The theoretical and empirical issues with vacancies data show that this is a mistake.
Cars, Reopening, & Housing Drove American Inflation While Natural Gas Heated European Inflation: Disaggregating Differences in US-Europe Inflation
When we disaggregate the aggregate inflation statistics, we find that the sources of high inflation in the US and Europe are different.
