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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

247 Posts
Preston Mui

We’re betting the Committee is probably internally more hawkish more than they are currently projecting. There is a real possibility of a hawkish pivot later this year.

We’re betting the Committee is probably internally more hawkish more than they are currently projecting. There is a real possibility of a hawkish pivot later this year.

You can see signs of hawkishness creeping into the Fedspeak. Goolsbee, Hammack and Musalem all expressed some openness to the idea of rate hikes this year.

The Fedspeak this week continued to be noncommittal as the Iran conflict plays out.

Even without an estimate of population growth, one can infer that the breakeven growth rate of nonfarm payrolls has fallen.

Fedspeak was largely unchanged from previous weeks, given the uncertainty stemming from the fallout of the Iran conflict. On the whole, Fed officials are more concerned about inflation than the labor market.

This is a solid jobs report, but the confusion over nonfarm payroll prints continues.

Intro With jobs day coming up on Friday, it is important to understand how the Fed is tracking the labor market. In particular, it is crucial to not overindex to the monthly nonfarm payroll prints—something we have warned against since 2023. Revisions whiplash, a shifting "breakeven rate"

Fedspeak was largely unchanged from previous weeks, given the uncertainty stemming from the fallout of the Iran conflict. On the whole, Fed officials are more concerned about inflation than the labor market.

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