Does Unemployment Actually Have To Rise For Wage Growth To Slow?
Wage growth is slowing. Job openings are increasing, unemployment is holding, and wage growth is slowing. This was supposed to be impossible–so what does it mean that it’s happening?
Q4 ECI - Quick Recap: Avoiding Hawkish Overreaction & Shading Down The Phillips Curve
Wage growth slowed in Q4 faster than consensus forecasts–-at an annualized rate just over 4%. We already noted in our preview that this would be very consistent...
January FOMC Preview: Will the Fed Update its Model of the Labor Market?
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will continue moderating its pace of rate hikes, stepping down to 25 basis point hikes. 2. With favorable disinflationary data coming in...
Q4 ECI Preview: Coincident Data Suggests Slowing, But Noise & Lags Risk Hawkish Overreaction
As we await the Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) release tomorrow (forecasting consensus: 1.2% QoQ, 4.9% CAGR; Q3: 1.2% QoQ, 4.8% CAGR), two key...
Too Many Eggs In One Basket: The Fragility of The Fed's Wage-Oriented 'Cost-Push' View of Inflation
The Fed is arguing that inflation is driven by the cost-push impacts of wage growth on service prices. This is a traditional view, but the pandemic recovery has...
