Labor Market Recap November 2022: Strong but Slowing
Overall the labor market data from November show a mixed picture, with the establishment survey showing resilience even as the household survey signaling a slowdown.
If Oil Prices Fall Further, The DOE Must Be Ready to Engage In Tactical Repurchases
Since the White House’s historic commitment on October 18th to repurchase crude oil “when the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is at or below...
October Inflation Preview: When Will We See The 'Real' Goods Deflation Materialize? Until Then, Rent Rules Everything Around Me
Headline CPI: Modest upside risk vs. forecasting consensus Consensus: 0.6% month-over-month, 7.9% year-over-yearGasoline prices did not play a major role in October, with only a minor...
Who is Driving the Labor Shortage? Part-time Over-70 Workers
A Labor Supply Shock?Much ado has been made about the shortfall in the headline employment-to-population ratio and the headline labor force participation rate of late. Many have...
Framework Update: Strong Enough Income Growth To Justify Hikes, But Slowing Enough For The Fed To Plan Off-Ramps
SummaryFriday's Q3 ECI release showed a modest slowdown in the pace of wage growth. Coupled with what we already knew about Q3 employment growth, we are continuing to...
