A Slowdown in Hiring is Dangerous Even Without Layoffs
Layoffs are important, but focusing on layoffs risks missing the other part of the equation: hiring.
The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 2: Did The Fed Miss A Productivity Boom? The Future Warrants More Attention & Agility
This is the second post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 can be found here. The Fed has an opportunity...
The Dream of the 90s is Slipping Away in 2025
After the pandemic recession, the right policy decisions resulted in a strong recovery and laid the foundations for another era of sustained productivity growth, similar to the 1990s. Sadly, in 2025, new policies are actively working against that dream.
Labor Market Recap March 2025: The Calm before the Storm
This is our last snapshot of the labor market before we really start seeing the effects of the new Administration’s policies on the economy.
The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 1: What Should the Fed Do About Tariff Inflation?
Tariffs are back. With President Trump implementing and still proposing sweeping new import tariffs, the U.S. economy is staring down the barrel of policy-driven price increases and...
