The Fed's Other Supply-Side Dilemma: Today's Restrictive Policies Are Deteriorating Tomorrow's Housing Supply Outlook
Today's data largely confirmed what we've known for some time now: the Fed's restrictive policies are restricting the level and growth of homebuilding activity in the US economy. But when we think holistically about the relevance...
June 2024 Inflation Preview: Can All Of The Downside Catalysts Arrive Before The July Meeting? Unlikely But Not Impossible
This is a delayed and truncated version of the monthly inflation preview we first share with MacroSuite subscribers. Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed'...
Unemployment is Up and Inflation has Fallen. A July Cut Should be on the Table.
As the July meeting approaches and Powell testifies in front of Congress at this week’s Humphrey Hawkins hearings, Powell and the rest of the Committee should keep the door open to a cut at the July meeting.
Labor Market Recap June 2024: Fed, Start Thinking About Cuts
With all of the softening in the labor market, it’s time for the Fed to actively discuss starting the process of rate normalization.
May Core-Cast Post-PCE: Right In Line With Our Nowcasts and Firming The Road To Beginning Cuts in September
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...