February 2025 Jobs Day Forecasts & Preview: Narrow Job Gains vs Reversion Effects From Weather, Seasonals & Natural Disasters
The following post was released to our MacroSuite subscribers subscribers on 2/25/2025. If you'd like to start a 90-day free trial of our exclusive...
January 2025 Core-Cast Post- PCE: Small Upside Surprises and Three Lagged Quirks That Stand In The Way Of The Fed's Target
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. Most of the PCE inflation gauges are sourced from...
Labor Market Recap January 2025: A Solid Report, but Risks Ahead
The labor market might be solid right now, but the composition of job growth in the future looks increasingly worrying.
December 2024 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Not Our Finest Nowcasting Cycle. Optimistic Outcomes Grow More Plausible For The Fed
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance,...
