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Recent developments in oil markets show how important it is to follow through on the second half of the SPR strategy.
August headline CPI inflation will likely come in close to the consensus forecast at -0.1% – which would be the lowest single-month reading since the onset of the pandemic.
The administration’s recently proposed regulation for flexibly refilling the SPR is a welcome policy change with serious potential to deliver price and supply stabilization benefits.
July headline inflation is likely to come in roughly in line with the consensus forecast at 0.2% with the possibility of a mild downside surprise. Core inflation will likely be in line with forecasts as well at 0.5%, and is poised to cool further in coming months.
Two things are all but guaranteed for the rest of the week: The Fed is going to hike 75 basis points (2.25%-2.50%) and signal that...