2021 in the Rearview: December FOMC Recap
To understand how the Fed is interpreting its “maximum employment” mandate in the current context, it’s worth going through Chair Powell’s remarks and Q&A for the December FOMC meeting.
Seasonality & Revisions: Pre-Pandemic Employment Rates May Be Closer Than They Appear
The prime-age employment rate rose by 0.5% in November 2021 to 78.8%, but this was abnormally low relative to the not seasonally adjusted (NSA) estimate of...
A Credible, Broad and Inclusive Approach to Maximum Employment
Critical to the Fed successfully achieving maximum employment over the short run and the longer run is a commitment to, and a communication of, “maximum employment” that is Credible, Broad, and Inclusive.
Planes, Constraints, and Automobiles: What to Look For in a Hot December CPI Print
It is key for commentators and policymakers to bear in mind that "transitory vs. persistent" is not the same debate as "narrow vs. broad-based."
Closing In On A Key Milestone For The Fed's "Maximum Employment" Forward Guidance
If the Fed wants to stay true to the "maximum employment" component of its forward guidance, and the "broad and inclusive" nature of that goal, it is imperative that their interest rate policy actions reflect a full recovery on both of these measures.
