Wage growth slowed in Q4 faster than consensus forecasts–-at an annualized rate just over 4%. We already noted in our preview that this would be very consistent with what the other Q4 macroeconomic & wage data was signaling. The scenario poised to...
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will continue moderating its pace of rate hikes, stepping down to 25 basis point hikes. 2. With favorable disinflationary data coming in...
As we await the Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) release tomorrow (forecasting consensus: 1.2% QoQ, 4.9% CAGR; Q3: 1.2% QoQ, 4.8% CAGR), two key...
The Fed is arguing that inflation is driven by the cost-push impacts of wage growth on service prices. This is a traditional view, but the pandemic recovery has...
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will step down from their breakneck pace of 75 basis point hikes to a still very brisk 50 basis point pace of...
