Does Unemployment Actually Have To Rise For Wage Growth To Slow?
Wage growth is slowing. Job openings are increasing, unemployment is holding, and wage growth is slowing. This was supposed to be impossible–so what does it mean that it’s happening?
Fed Policy
37 postsQ4 ECI - Quick Recap: Avoiding Hawkish Overreaction & Shading Down The Phillips Curve
Wage growth slowed in Q4 faster than consensus forecasts–-at an annualized rate just over 4%. We already noted in our preview that this would be very consistent...
January FOMC Preview: Will the Fed Update its Model of the Labor Market?
What to Expect: 1. The Fed will continue moderating its pace of rate hikes, stepping down to 25 basis point hikes. 2. With favorable disinflationary data coming in...
Recessions are Mostly Driven by Lower Hiring
While layoffs are painful to workers, more attention needs to be paid to the threat of a rise in unemployment arising from a slowdown in hiring. In this report, we examine the important role that a fall in hiring rates plays during unemployment increases.
Too Many Eggs In One Basket: The Fragility of The Fed's Wage-Oriented 'Cost-Push' View of Inflation
The Fed is arguing that inflation is driven by the cost-push impacts of wage growth on service prices. This is a traditional view, but the pandemic recovery has...
