Tightening global financial conditions may serve to reinforce policy tightening, and the Fed should be cognizant of the risk that hikes may have a stronger-than-expected impact in this period of elevated uncertainty.
A CPI pre-read, wherein we argue the Fed should be calibrating its tightening efforts to what current conditions are indicating.
Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on...
Commentators across the ideological spectrum have argued that inequality justifies a more hawkish path for monetary policy. These arguments miss the fact that interest rate policy primarily slows consumer spending and consumer price inflation by slowing down the labor market first.
We provide an update on what our in-house monetary policy framework suggests about the appropriate trajectory for monetary policy using more reliable “real-time” measures of gross labor income
