Does Unemployment Actually Have To Rise For Wage Growth To Slow?
Wage growth is slowing. Job openings are increasing, unemployment is holding, and wage growth is slowing. This was supposed to be impossible–so what does it mean that it’s happening?
Inflation
43 postsQ4 ECI Preview: Coincident Data Suggests Slowing, But Noise & Lags Risk Hawkish Overreaction
As we await the Q4 Employment Cost Index (ECI) release tomorrow (forecasting consensus: 1.2% QoQ, 4.9% CAGR; Q3: 1.2% QoQ, 4.8% CAGR), two key...
Too Many Eggs In One Basket: The Fragility of The Fed's Wage-Oriented 'Cost-Push' View of Inflation
The Fed is arguing that inflation is driven by the cost-push impacts of wage growth on service prices. This is a traditional view, but the pandemic recovery has...
What Is "Core PCE Services Ex-Housing" Anyway?
The Fed is worried that inflation will continue until wage growth comes down or unemployment ticks up based on the continued strength in “Core PCE Services ex-Housing”. But the Fed is wrong to be so confident.
Can Supply Shortages Be Persistent? Can Broad-Based Effects Prove To Be Temporary?
For those who have [https://twitter.com/IrvingSwisher/status/1521903727749312515?s=20&t=esX-02b2NNIo5elr0YW7tw] followed my [https://twitter.com/IrvingSwisher/status/1491566835522846728?s=20&t=7_bO_QL8AZ2aAWj10j6uuA]...
