April 2025 Core-Cast Post-PCE: The Calm Before The Potential Storm... Was Indeed Calm
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like...
The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 4: Preparing For Inflation Risk Where Investment Is Rate-Sensitive
This is the fourth post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation...
The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 3: Slicing & Dicing Inflation: The Fed Is Due For A Communications Overhaul
This is the third post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 can be found here and Part 2 can be...
Supporting LNG & AI: Embrace The IRA Or Be Prepared To Pay
Many thanks to Pavan Venkatakrishnan, James Hewett, and Alex Turnbull for their thoughtful contributions to this piece. Introduction The House Ways and Means Committee has proposed rescinding hundreds...
May FOMC Preview
The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.
