Feb Inflation Preview: Jan-Feb Residual Seasonality Poised To Stoke Upside & Headfake The Fed
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is...
Labor Market Recap, February 2024: Back to "Slowing, but Strong"
After what appeared to be (on the surface and at first glance) a hot January, the labor market data for February 2024 signaled a return to the narrative we followed throughout last year: the labor market is slowing, but remains strong.
Jan Core-Cast Post-PCE: No Major Surprises But Jan-Feb Residual Seasonality Seems Likely To Headfake The Fed
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of...
January Inflation Preview: High Stakes Data Releases With Fat Tails On Both Sides
Our inflation previews are typically released to the public with a delay relative to what we provide to our exclusive High Frequency Descriptive Analysis (HFDA) distribution subscribers. The...
Labor Market Recap January 2024: Weather Clouds Some Weakness
The headline January labor market data was strong, but there are still some signs of weakness under the surface.