Core-Cast

Summary & Discussion After Kevin Warsh's professed interest in Trimmed Mean PCE at his confirmation hearing, we published updated nowcasts for all PCE inflation gauges, including Trimmed Mean and Median inflation, as well as updated estimates for Headline, Core, and Supercore PCE. Compared to those nowcasts, we didn&

Kevin Warsh says he wants to "survey a billion prices," yet has embraced a trimmed mean measure (conveniently the most dovish signal) which asymmetrically throws out 55% of the basket and leans on lagging housing components. Symmetric, market-based ex-housing variants show upside inflation risk.

Summary We thought we were penciling in sufficiently strong readings for the PPI inputs in March but apparently not enough. We've marked up our y/y and m/m readings for Core PCE in March by 4bps (26bps->30bps m/m, 3.13%->3.17%