Core Services Ex Housing
We see a sizable "inverted" CPI-PCE wedge for July 2026.
Month-over-month Core PCE came in at 13bps in June, three basis points below our nowcast of 16bps. Headline came in at -11bps vs our -10bp nowcast. Our errors primarily stemmed from Supercore (core services ex-housing), while our nowcasts for core goods and housing came in right in
Our month-over-month May Core PCE nowcast of 0.40% came in 8 basis points above the realized 0.32% reading. Our error stemmed from Supercore (core services ex-housing) – the realized readings for nowcasts for core goods and housing came right in line with our final nowcasts for