Core PCE
Summary Core PCE came in at +25bps for the month-over-month July reading, a highly uncharacteristic 9 basis point miss. Our miss primarily stemmed from healthcare, airfares, and tax preparation services. We will be implementing improved nowcasting techniques next month and look forward to being back on track. A
We see a sizable "inverted" CPI-PCE wedge for July 2026.
Month-over-month Core PCE came in at 13bps in June, three basis points below our nowcast of 16bps. Headline came in at -11bps vs our -10bp nowcast. Our errors primarily stemmed from Supercore (core services ex-housing), while our nowcasts for core goods and housing came in right in
The BEA will make three changes to how it measures price change for portfolio management, computer software and accessories, and legal services in PCE. On net, these changes would likely lower current PCE inflation readings.