Supply Side
Supply-driven upside inflation risks were mounting even before the Hormuz shock. We traced 29 PCE goods categories through the domestic supply chain to produce a Supply-Chain Weighted PPI composite to better forecast goods inflation. The model suggests more upside risk to goods inflation ahead.
Introduction On Friday evening, the Department of Energy (DOE) published its solicitation for an exchange for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, part of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) joint release of 400 million barrels. In total, the US will release 172 million barrels. The exchange announced Friday is for exchange
Employ America is pleased to endorse the SECURE Minerals Act, which establishes a Strategic Resilience Reserve, high priority for the organization since we first proposed it with Daleep Singh in February 2024. We applaud the efforts of Senator Young, Senator Shaheen, Representative Wittman, and Representative Moolenaar towards legislative enactment. The
This is the final post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review and strategy for dealing with supply shocks. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation risks, Part 2 discusses the implications of recent productivity dynamics, Part 3 discusses the Fed&
If inflation feels virtually nonexistent to some, that may soon change. The May CPI release showed a much slower pace of price increases than expected. Some of that reflects lagged effects to housing components of inflation relative to events that transpired 2-3 years ago. And it is also true that
This is the fourth post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 discusses how the Fed can deal with tariff inflation risks, Part 2 discusses the implications of recent productivity dynamics, and Part 3 discusses the Fed's inflation and supply shock
This is the third post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 can be found here and Part 2 can be found here. The Fed has an opportunity to learn valuable lessons and apply those lessons in a forward-looking manner. By revising its
This is the second post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 can be found here. The Fed has an opportunity to learn valuable lessons and apply those lessons in a forward-looking manner. By revising its framework accordingly, Fed policy can be more