Fed Expectations

Kevin Warsh says he wants to "survey a billion prices," yet has embraced a trimmed mean measure (conveniently the most dovish signal) which asymmetrically throws out 55% of the basket and leans on lagging housing components. Symmetric, market-based ex-housing variants show upside inflation risk.

Without further signs of deterioration in the labor market, the Committee is unlikely to cut in December. By our count, a majority of the FOMC is leaning against a December cut.