Labor Markets

Intro With jobs day coming up on Friday, it is important to understand how the Fed is tracking the labor market. In particular, it is crucial to not overindex to the monthly nonfarm payroll prints—something we have warned against since 2023. Revisions whiplash, a shifting "breakeven rate"

Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what such a rise in the unemployment rate typically implied. Most prime working age cohorts actually saw rising employment and

Both initial and continuing claims fell slightly with this week's data.