Labor Markets

On the whole, this is a good jobs report. It’s hard to find much fault with the data here, and it significantly diminishes the prospects of a July cut.

So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.

Layoffs are important, but focusing on layoffs risks missing the other part of the equation: hiring.

This is our last snapshot of the labor market before we really start seeing the effects of the new Administration’s policies on the economy.

Tariffs are back. With President Trump implementing and still proposing sweeping new import tariffs, the U.S. economy is staring down the barrel of policy-driven price increases and a new round of supply-driven cost-push inflation. If enacted for a long enough period of time, these policies could push up the