Fedspeak

In 2026, the Fed moved from an easing bias to a hold to a hike, catching up to the data with a lag at every stage. We look back at how (1) a bottoms-up read of inflation, (2) a careful reading of the labor market, and (3) close tracking of the full FOMC put us ahead of the hawkish turn.

Kevin Warsh says he wants to "survey a billion prices," yet has embraced a trimmed mean measure (conveniently the most dovish signal) which asymmetrically throws out 55% of the basket and leans on lagging housing components. Symmetric, market-based ex-housing variants show upside inflation risk.

A light week of Fedspeak. We heard from Powell this week, who dodged a question about a July cut.

An eventful week of Fedspeak changes many of our views of where Committee members are.

In the days after the FOMC press conference, we have a couple of speakers talking about the possibility that they may need to move to protect the labor market.

Note: Subscribers to MacroSuite will receive our FOMC preview a week early, at the beginning of the blackout period before each FOMC meeting. What To Expect: The Fed has signaled a hold on interest rates not just in June, but throughout the summer. With risks to the inflation trajectory on

It’s just a waiting game for the inflation data to show the effect of tariffs or the labor market starts to show signs of breaking.

A light week of Fedspeak, but a few notable pieces from some of the Committee.