Alex Williams

We’ve received a flurry of Fedspeak ahead of the blackout period. But given how little new macroeconomic data we have received since the SVB fallout (most March surveys will fail to capture an effect), we doubt that there has been much innovation from March interest rate projections to what

A wealth of Fedspeak this week has substantially clarified whose dots were whose on the most recent SEP. Goolsbee’s dovish speech strongly suggests the lone 4.875 dot was his, while Waller makes the case for further hikes. Bostic and Harker strongly implied their previous dots landed at 5.

At Employ America, we have argued that shortages of physical productive capacity played a major role in the inflation seen during and after the recovery from the pandemic recession. In order to analyze the impacts of shortages and their resolution, we have been tracking reported shortages and comparing them to

Still too early to say about June dots, but this week’s Fedspeak suggests the Fed sees the turmoil in the wake of SVB as unlikely to widen, but of possible sectoral relevance as a shock to small businesses, as we noted last week. Bullard is worried about OPEC’s

This is part of our Supply Chain Monitoring series usually made available exclusively for our Premium Donors. If you’re interested in gaining access to our Premium Donor distribution, please feel free to reach out to us here for more information. The semiconductor shortage has been a major narrative throughout

We think it’s too early to make any judgments about June dots but it seems clearer that Susan Collins’ priors remain geared towards further tightening, while Neel Kashkari consistently sounded more cautious about macroeconomic implications from banking turmoil.