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The current stabilization, with growth rates returning to low positive figures, suggests continued normalization rather than the beginning of a new inflationary cycle.

Today’s data update takes a closer look at the manufacturing data within the most recent Employment Situation release.

The November data continues to show broad-based normalization and slowing, with a few sectors in particular trouble.

The November 2024 Producer Price Index data continue to show normalizing input cost growth for the economy as a whole, as well as most individual sectors.

In this month’s report, we saw contraction in the overall aggregate, with a decline of 0.3% month-over-month for a year-over-year decline of 0.3%.

Overall input cost inflation has been accelerating again in recent months, driven almost entirely by increases on the Services side.

While the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has already successfully catalyzed investment, there is still more that it can do. Complementary policies addressing price volatility and supply chain vulnerability, as well as permitting reform and other policies, will be needed.

The index of Total Industrial Production fell by 0.3% month over month in the September data, for a 0.6% year over year decline.

PPI for All Commodities fell by 1.2% month over month in the September data, for a 2.5% year over year fall.