The pandemic revealed how vulnerable our economy is to supply chain disruptions, with shortages driving price increases across multiple sectors. Our Supply Chain Monitor tracks bottlenecks in key industries and transportation networks that can affect prices and production capacity throughout the economy. We analyze shipping costs, delivery times, inventory levels, and component availability across critical sectors like semiconductors, housing materials, and energy.
Supply Chain Monitor
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80 Posts
Jul 27, 2023
This is the first in a recurring series on what the underlying detail tables can tell us about the path of investment across the broader macroeconomy.
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Jul 19, 2023
We are seeing an economy that is still growing, slowing, and stabilizing as businesses come to understand the dynamics of the post-pandemic environment. With that said, we might be close to the end of the downswing part of “normalization”.
Jul 06, 2023
As everyone is watching for signs of recession, some are warning that weakness in surveys like the ISM Manufacturing PMIs indicate an imminent recession. Since expectations play a major (and multi-faceted, as one can have expectations about all sorts of things) role in investment and employment...
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Jul 05, 2023
Lately, everyone has been looking closely for reliable recession indicators. We have been as well, but when we look at the overall labor market and investment picture, more and more things seem to be saying “No Recession.”
In a usual business cycle, investment in industrial equipment leads investment in manufacturing structures as businesses scale capacity up to meet demand. Today we’re seeing manufacturing investment explode upwards even as investment in equipment slows. This may be an early indication that CHIPS...
May 25, 2023
What’s Happening: Despite signs of a “bloodbath” in the spot market for trucking, investment in the production of new trucks is set up to hold steady even as shipping rates fall. This could be good news for the inflation, investment, and climate outlooks. Why It Matters: In recessions, trucking
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May 25, 2023
What’s Happening: Despite signs of a “bloodbath” in the spot market for trucking, investment in the production of new trucks is set up to hold steady even as shipping rates fall. This could be good news for the inflation, investment and climate outlooks.
New industrial production data are suggesting that domestic auto production may be recovering. This would be a much-needed disinflationary force against a backdrop where disinflation in new and used autos is threatening to stall out. Yesterday, we got new industrial production data from the Fed, and there is encouraging news
May 16, 2023
Three Big Themes We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption. After a correction earlier in the year, industrial production
