Causal Theme

Summary The post-pandemic period was marked by global forces that raised inflation across all developed economies. Dominant explanations of inflation should be of a similarly global character. Policy discussions that reckon with counterfactuals and explainable magnitudes must go beyond nation-specific policies and dynamics. While local policies always shape inflation outcomes

The productivity data is messy and often should not be taken at face value. Our "Cautious Case For Productivity Optimism" in the summer of last year flagged three forces that should support better productivity growth in 2023 and 2024 have been cautious optimists about productivity improvement for some

Summary Inflation and interest rates remain high enough that now is not a time for 'soft landing' victory laps, but the growing and broadening evidence of price deceleration warrants a deeper dive. If the Fed's role in achieving disinflation runs through "cooling real demand,"

From the outset, I should say that I am a bigger skeptic of productivity data than most. Once you know how the sausage is made, you will be more skeptical of how it is typically served to customers. Nevertheless, I'm about to lay out three reasons, based on

This is a public Causal Theme post on our High-Frequency Descriptive Analysis distribution. Consider subscribing to our full distribution by reaching out to us here. Bottom Line: The current flight in deposits away from smaller banks to larger banks represents a more exogenous form of financial conditions tightening, primarily through