Core Inflation
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. If you are interested in
Bottom Line: The consumer has proven to be resilient in its spending patterns in a number of respects, but real food consumption has not. Given the correction in domestic food consumption, and the potential peaking out of 'food at home' inflation, food services inflation has plausible potential to
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. If you are interested in
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.