Core PCE

Note: This post has been revised to reflect some updating issues we previously had. Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative

This preview was published three days ago for our Premium Donor distribution. Consider subscribing if you would like to support our public research and advocacy work, and receive early access to our data release previews. Summary: The risks for March and Q1 core inflation have remained asymmetrically tilted to the

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. If you are interested in

Earlier this year, the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) for Medicare Advantage spending and methodological changes for CY 2024. If finalized, the rule would increase overall Medicare Advantage payments by 1.03%, a considerable departure from increases of 8.5%

Bottom Line: The consumer has proven to be resilient in its spending patterns in a number of respects, but real food consumption has not. Given the correction in domestic food consumption, and the potential peaking out of 'food at home' inflation, food services inflation has plausible potential to