CPI

We're doing the dirty work of translating CPI to PCE in real-time for you. We'll be back on Thursday to provide an update after the PPI release, which will inevitably reshape the nowcast. The associated heatmaps are somewhat dense and intense: they give a holistic view

Summary: Relative to consensus forecasts, the risks for January & Q1 core inflation are now asymmetrically tilted to the upside (Jan core CPI ~ 0.4%). While we don't think the causes for upside risk are a sound basis for hawkish panic, the Fed would certainly be vulnerable to

We'll have our usual monthly inflation preview soon, but for those curious, here's a bit of a preview to the preview... We all should take heart in how 2022H2 highlighted the possibility and plausibility of a 'soft landing'—disinflation without more unemployment—at odds

For those who have followed my Twitter feed, you will know that I have long pointed out that "narrow vs broad-based," "transitory vs persistent," and "supply vs demand" are not three ways of saying the same thing.

A soft landing consensus for CPI? The forecasting consensus is sticking close to its November predictions, with a 0.3% increase expected for core CPI (falling from 6% to 5.7% year-over-year) and -0.1% for headline CPI (falling from 7.1% to 6.5% year-over-year) for December. A print

Market rents are decelerating, which means CPI-measured rents – and with them, core and headline CPI – should ultimately decelerate as well, with a lag. But is this deceleration due to the Fed’s actions? Or is it because job growth is slowing down endogenously, as many have been expecting over this

Not out of the woods yet on upside risks to monthly core CPI inflation: The forecasting consensus has shifted down from its 0.5% expectation for core CPI in October to a more optimistic 0.3% expectation in November. This seems to be mostly a reaction to the welcome core

Headline CPI: Modest upside risk vs. forecasting consensus * Consensus: 0.6% month-over-month, 7.9% year-over-year * Gasoline prices did not play a major role in October, with only a minor non-seasonally-adjusted increase from September to October at the retail level. * Energy services inflation should be more moderate given the correction in