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CPI

As was warned in our May CPI preview (Peak Inflation? Not So Fast, My Friend. Upside Surprises Loom Large), the "peak inflation" calls were likely to prove premature. With the rapid rise of gasoline prices in the first half of June and passthrough from higher US benchmark natural

In this first piece of a series, we’re going to walk through an overview of the ways inflation statistics can diverge between countries and demonstrate just how difficult it is to establish apples-to-apples comparisons between aggregate inflation measures in different countries.

While it is true that base effects should create more favorable terrain for year-over-year headline CPI inflation readings to decline in this calendar year, the full   implications of the current commodity supply shocks stemming from the Ukraine invasion still remain underrated. It is plausible that we return or even surpass

If we are trying to describe the nature of the real constraints that the economy has been facing over the past 6-12 months, we need a richer economic vocabulary than one that reduces every inflationary constraint to a domestic labor constraint.

A CPI pre-read, wherein we argue the Fed should be calibrating its tightening efforts to what current conditions are indicating.

Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on the food and energy impulse from what we might call the "Putin shock" to key commodities. At the same time,

January is always a high-variance month for inflation readings and especially so for this January. We have been flagging the dynamics that were likely to grease the runway to elevated inflation prints in Q4 (which mostly materialized as described). We expect general strength in the January inflation print, primarily due

It is key for commentators and policymakers to bear in mind that "transitory vs. persistent" is not the same debate as "narrow vs. broad-based."

The policy mistake worth worrying about isn’t the speed of taper per se; it's the signal that taper sends about the timing of liftoff in interest rate policy.

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