Data

This preview was originally released on Monday to Premium Donors. If you would like to get the first look at this kind of content, please feel free to reach out to us here or start a 30-day free trial today Sections: 1. Summary 2. Key Dynamics Within Baseline View 3.

The July 2023 labor market data continues to confirm the story we’ve been telling for months: while slowing down, the labor market remains strong, with high levels of employment amidst a disinflationary environment. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, consistent with our preview, and

This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption