Energy

September headline CPI inflation will likely come in near the consensus forecast of 0.2% as gyrations in commodity markets slow. In our view, upside risks weigh more heavily to the non-core components of inflation relative to consensus because of how the ‘Russia shock’ affects a number of food and

This is the second piece in our Contingent Supply series, which looks at the operational requirements, financial needs, and economic opportunities involved in using the SPR to stabilize oil markets.

The administration’s recently proposed regulation for flexibly refilling the SPR is a welcome policy change with serious potential to deliver price and supply stabilization benefits.

When we disaggregate the aggregate inflation statistics, we find that the sources of high inflation in the US and Europe are different.

July headline inflation is likely to come in roughly in line with the consensus forecast at 0.2% with the possibility of a mild downside surprise. Core inflation will likely be in line with forecasts as well at 0.5%, and is poised to cool further in coming months.

The long-term goal of energy policy should encompass more than just security and decarbonization: the goal should be to ensure energy capacity abundance and stable energy cost.

As was warned in our May CPI preview (Peak Inflation? Not So Fast, My Friend. Upside Surprises Loom Large), the "peak inflation" calls were likely to prove premature. With the rapid rise of gasoline prices in the first half of June and passthrough from higher US benchmark natural

The White House should not use the refining capacity crunch as a reason to avoid grappling with the fragile state of crude oil supply, as it appears to be doing. In gasoline and other refined products, there are two related but separable sources of scarcity: crude oil and refining capacity.

The Department of Treasury should be making use of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to target accelerated supply-side responses and insure critical producers against downside risks.