Energy

Given the discretion afforded the Secretary in utilizing the ESF, and the strong correlation between commodity price volatility and exchange rate volatility, the Secretary has the authority to establish a Supply Insurance and Acceleration Program for key commodities.

Summary Although neither the magnitude nor composition of last week's inflation print surprised us, especially given the knock-on effects from the 'Ukraine shock', they did surprise the CPI forecasting consensus. In response, Chair Powell and the rest of the committee will likely deliver two innovations: 1.

The White House and Congress should consider an “all-of-the-above” approach oriented around three objectives: (1) investments where productive capacity; (2) targeted policies for reducing sectoral demand; and (3) policies that facilitate greater competition and technological diffusion.

While it is true that base effects should create more favorable terrain for year-over-year headline CPI inflation readings to decline in this calendar year, the full   implications of the current commodity supply shocks stemming from the Ukraine invasion still remain underrated. It is plausible that we return or even surpass

Creative production contracts involving the sale of put options (as we previously advocated for), could help set a soft “floor” on oil prices, preventing a large-scale return to consumer purchases of gas-guzzling cars.

Summary The Department of Energy (“DOE”) is about to engage in rulemaking to broaden the types of acquisitions it can engage in to help refill the reserve in a manner that is both cost-efficient and consistent with the broader goal of enhancing energy security. This rulemaking is a worthwhile opportunity

Since financial markets are complex and energy policy can be shrouded in legalese, it is worth taking a minute to translate some of the more abstruse language in the DOE’s announcement.

This is meant to be a quick "micropost" and may be light on linking & original charts I was recently quoted saying that oil prices surging past $150 was "not implausible" in 2022. The reasons for my concern remains, but through delivering greater demand certainty and

The recently-announced SPR release is the first step in a broader program to address oil price volatility in today's geopolitical environment.