Federal Reserve

Across the board, from presumed hawks to doves, the message from committee members this week is fairly unified: they are spooked by January's inflation data.

In an extended conversation at NABE on Friday, Daly provided a lot of insight into her thinking. There was a lot to like in her answers.

The rest of the committee speaks in a near-unified voice: we can be patient with cuts.

Statements by Bowman, Goolsbee, and Powell this week revealed little we didn't already know.

The productivity data is messy and often should not be taken at face value. Our "Cautious Case For Productivity Optimism" in the summer of last year flagged three forces that should support better productivity growth in 2023 and 2024 have been cautious optimists about productivity improvement for some

With lots of new data around the corner, the Fed will want to keep its options open.

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption