Inflation

As economic risks shift from inflation toward the labor market, the Federal Reserve has begun the process of normalizing interest rates. While inflation is certainly lower than a year ago, that doesn't mean that inflationary risks are dead, either now or in the future. One stark lesson of

While the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has already successfully catalyzed investment, there is still more that it can do. Complementary policies addressing price volatility and supply chain vulnerability, as well as permitting reform and other policies, will be needed.

Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance, import price index (IPI) data can prove occasionally relevant. There are also some high-leverage components that only come out on the days

Our new baseline is a 50 bps cut with a total of 75 bps of cuts in the SEP for 2024. It’s a close call but we think a 50 bps cut is more likely than a 25 bps cut. We think a 50 bps point cut is the right move.