Labor Markets

When it comes to the Fed policy today, the question of whether or not these rules are good at telling us if we’re currently in a recession is almost besides the point.

A 50 basis point cut should be the base case after today and further slowdowns in the remaining jobs and inflation reports between now and the September meeting may bolster the case for more drastic action this year.

This article is intended to serve as a follow-up to the #FloorGLI proposal in “Floor It! Fixing the Fed’s Framework With Paychecks, Not Prices.” The official national accounts estimate of gross labor income (GLI) is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), but because of sharp

Fire prevention—rather than fire fighting—is a better approach to risk management when it comes to the labor market. When it comes to unemployment risk, the Fed should be proactive and preemptive, not reactive.

As the July meeting approaches and Powell testifies in front of Congress at this week’s Humphrey Hawkins hearings, Powell and the rest of the Committee should keep the door open to a cut at the July meeting.

With all of the softening in the labor market, it’s time for the Fed to actively discuss starting the process of rate normalization.

The totality of the evidence points more towards a cooling (but still good!) labor market than heating up, despite the payroll prints.